No, not the kind that come from Poland. I’m talking about the kind that you conduct under questionable circumstances and then wave the results in everyone’s face to prove your point, whatever it may be.

I was an Actuary for most of my life so I know a little bit about numbers, in particular how the results of surveys can be massaged, twisted and distorted or simply made up if in fact there was any semblance between the poll and the subject of the poll to begin with.

Prior to the election for POTUS in 2016 there were 315 polls, yes, a total of 315 from 38 different sources, many of them going up to the day of the election. Of these 315 polls, 276 of them predicted Clinton as the winner with spreads going up to 15%. Trump came out ahead in 27 of the polls with spreads as high as 8% and 12 of the polls showed Clinton and Trump as even. The average of all the polls showed Clinton as the winner by 5.3%. We all know what happened.

There are many who that say that Clinton was the real winner because she won the popular vote. But that’s not how the Constitution works. It is based on the Electoral System. You don’t like it? Then change it. The Constitution has within it the exact procedures on how make the change. What the Constitution does not permit is changing it via anarchy. We have in our country an over abundance of idiots whose hatred of Trump is so pervasive that they seek to get rid of the Electoral System regardless of the outcome or how they do it. What these idiots fail to understand is that if they are successful in bringing about such a change, it will turn the election results over to two states, California and New York. But this is a subject for another time.

On close examination of the results of these 315 polls it would appear that the over whelming majority of them are made up of pure unadulterated bullshit. Why? Because 99 of the 315 polls are of groups of 1,000 or less. Considering the number of potential voters that we have in our country there is no way to get any kind of statistical average or proper sampling with groups that small. No way.

These polls takers come from all walks of life. Of the 38 pollsters that produced the 315 polls, only one stands out, NBC/MONKEY SURVEY. I like that name. They produced 32 of the 315 polls where their groups ranged from a low of 5,818 to a high of 70,194. All of their competitors for the remaining 283 polls consisted of groups of only a couple of thousand of which 99 of them were for groups of 1,000 or less.

While NBC/MONKEY SURVEY is without a doubt the only real poll taker of those who call themselves poll takers, they still showed Clinton as the winner in all 32 of their polls with spreads as high a 12%. So what happened?

Fast forward four years and the polling situation does not appear to have changed. Of the approximate 180 polls done in 2020, 172 of them show Biden ahead of Trump with an average of 7% to 8% and only 2 of the polls showed Trump in the lead by a small margin and 6 of the polls showed them as even. But 73 of the polls were for groups of 1,000 or less so you know what you can do with those. Most of the others were for groups of a couple of thousand. Like four years ago we have one heavy hitter among the poll takers, MORNING CONSULT. This poll taker accounted for 23 of the 180 polls with an average group of about 25,000 wherein they showed Biden leading Trump by 3% to 8% but also showed the undecided ranging from 7% to 8%.

What does this signify? Are we going to have a repeat of 2016? Before trying to answer those questions we would have to know the circumstances under which the various polls were taken. Were they conducted as people exited from a movie or a Broadway show, at the super market check out line, at a pizza parlor or McDonald’s, at a sports event, via a questionnaire delivered by the US Postal Service or maybe a college campus? That’s a good place to get diversity. Yeah, right? But which college? One thing is for certain. These polls most likely did not take into account those people who stay at home either by their choice or necessity.

So what do we do? If you think you have an intelligent suggestion send it to us.

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